It’s not just us saying it anymore, it’s hard data from a source that’s predicted nearly every electoral win for decades.
A new report from Moody’s Analytics shows that President Donald Trump is on course for an easy victory next November. In fact, the study’s authors go on to say that Trump could see an Electoral College win by an even larger margin than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016. And while the popular vote went to the career Democrat, an Electoral College win of 304-227 isn’t exactly close.
“Under the current Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook, which does not forecast any recession, the 2020 election looks like Trump’s to lose,” the study says. “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but, under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.”
The report in part refutes the idea that the United States will see an economic recession before the election in 2020 — a conspiracy theory the mainstream media has been happy to support over the past few months. You see, no one could deny that the economy has been super-charged under Trump, and arguing that it had nothing to do with the administration slashing regulations as well as individual tax rates is almost impossible.
Of course, Democrats are trying to make this argument anyway, but it isn’t working. And when you have a frontrunner who represents a time when economic “recover” still meant rising unemployment rates, this is even more difficult.
“Voter sentiment correlates highly with changes in real personal income,” the authors added. “To avoid double counting, energy price inflation was excluded from this calculation. Again, finances matter here as well, as voters who feel better off from real, and not just nominal, wage gains are more likely to express comfort in the status quo. This measure also favors Trump…”
MarketWatch notes that Moody’s Analytics has accurately predicted every single presidential election except for one: Trump vs. Clinton in 2016. It’s hard to blame them for that one — almost no one got that one right.
